The Bike Industry Changed - So We Did Too [Video]

I’d like to think that the only things that make me look old these days are my new mustache — I shaved in Australia, by the way — and the fact that I founded Worldwide Cyclery back in 2011. Dang, that was a long time ago. But that journey’s given me a deep understanding of the bike industry — where it’s been, where it’s at now (spoiler: it’s kind of a mess), and where it’s heading.

If you’ve been even remotely tuned into cycling news over the past year or so, you’ve probably seen the headlines: brands filing bankruptcy, shops shutting down, inventory pile-ups, and what looks like a full-blown industry implosion. This all stems from a massive boom and bust cycle that the cycling industry went through during the COVID pandemic. And it’s pretty easy to understand in hindsight.

During those peak pandemic years, everyone got into cycling — or rode a lot more if they were already into it. As a result, inventory flew off shelves, creating huge shortages. Then, in 2021, all the brands, manufacturers, and retailers — ourselves included — overcorrected and massively over-ordered. When the world reopened and people went back to gyms, sports, and travel, the demand normalized… but the inventory didn’t. Suddenly, everyone was sitting on way too much product.

That led to a brutal cash flow crunch. If all your capital is tied up in unsold inventory, and you can’t move it fast enough, you don’t have the cash to pay rent, payroll, or operating expenses. It’s a death spiral. That’s what’s taken down a lot of businesses in the bike world recently. But it’s not just about inventory mismanagement — this bust collided with deeper, more systemic industry challenges.

One of those is the plateau in product innovation. Back in the day, mountain biking saw true innovation — things that fundamentally changed the riding experience. Tapered steerer tubes, dropper posts, 1x drivetrains, 29-inch wheels… those were game-changers. But in the last 5 years? It’s mostly been incremental updates. And if something’s going to be called an “innovation,” it should be substantial. That stagnation affects consumer excitement and spending habits.

At the same time, the way bikes and components are bought and sold has dramatically changed. The rise of consumer-direct sales — where bike and component brands sell directly to customers — has put a ton of pressure on both brick-and-mortar shops and online retailers. Worldwide Cyclery is a hybrid of both, and even we've had to adapt fast. Rewinding to 2015, I had a hunch that we’d need to own and manufacture our own brands to future-proof our business. That’s where KETL Mtn. Apparel and Trail One Components were born.

Both of those brands started pre-pandemic, and looking back, I’m extremely grateful we moved on them early. KETL is now actually larger than Worldwide Cyclery in terms of revenue. It’s wild to say, but that’s the reality. Trail One Components, meanwhile, is still focused purely on mountain biking — high-end, purpose-built parts that reflect our own riding needs and donate back to trail networks. Together, those brands gave us the vertical integration we needed: design, manufacture, and sell ourselves, with full control over pricing, marketing, and inventory.

That evolution helped us weather the storm. We also diversified revenue by selling ad spots in our YouTube videos — but only for products we actually use and love, like Element electrolyte supplements. We’re intentional with that kind of thing. The product’s legit, and it helps our audience perform better on the bike — and yes, it also helps us keep the lights on.

To make sense of where the bike industry is going, I’ve leaned heavily into tools like Google Trends. It shows the popularity of search terms over time — and when you look up terms like “bike shop,” “eMTB,” or even specific parts like “SRAM XX1” or “Fox 36,” you see clear trends. Traffic spiked during COVID, and then started dropping hard. Sales held steady for a bit, but online engagement — which is often a leading indicator — was already dropping in 2022.

I saw the writing on the wall in Q3 2022 and made the call to run a massive month-long blowout sale to clear inventory. It was a last-minute decision but absolutely the right one. A lot of businesses didn’t react in time — or didn’t use tools like SEMrush or Trends to spot what was coming. And by then, it was too late. They were locked into high inventory, and when things slowed down, they had to start discounting. That triggered a chain reaction — a pricing war that no one really wins.

You might think those price cuts are a good thing, especially after years of inflated prices, but it’s not that simple. This whole scenario was driven by real-world economics — supply and demand, yes, but also vendor constraints. During the pandemic, if you wanted product, suppliers would basically say, “You want that much? Great. But you’ll need to order this much more just to get it in a reasonable timeframe.” People weren’t being greedy — they were reacting to unprecedented demand.

It’s easy to ask, “Why didn’t brands see this coming?” The truth is, forecasting is hard in a normal year. In a global pandemic with explosive consumer demand? Nearly impossible. The result? Everyone stocked up, demand faded, and they got stuck. It hit every part of the market — from $10K bikes to entry-level rigs. It even changed consumer behavior — people hoarded parts like brake pads and derailleurs. Then didn’t buy them again for two years.

There’s also this tension between customers and brands. A lot of riders say, “This is what the industry deserves for charging $4,000 for a carbon frame.” And while there’s some truth to that, what we’ve lived through is more complicated. It’s not just greed — it’s a tangled mess of forecasting failures, supply chain pressures, shifting consumer behavior, and the cold reality of economics.

The good news? There are still a lot of people in this industry who are doing it for the right reasons. Not for money, but because they love it. Most of us aren’t here to get rich — we’re here because we’re passionate about mountain bikes. This is a lifestyle business for a lot of us. That’s why I have empathy for the people and companies struggling right now.

To be honest, I started seeing these structural changes years ago by studying the motorcycle industry, which hit all of these trends about 7 to 12 years earlier than cycling. Online sales, consumer-direct, MAP pricing — it all happened there first. That gave me a lot of insight into where cycling would go. And that’s part of what pushed us to get more vertical and build our own brands.

Now, in 2024 — which might be the rock bottom of the bust — I’m incredibly thankful we did. If we were just Worldwide Cyclery today, we’d be in real trouble. But with KETL Mtn. Apparel and Trail One Components, we’ve been able to not just survive but actually grow. KETL, in particular, has been a super fun, fulfilling, and successful project — not just MTB gear, but outdoor and casual apparel designed with our own taste and values.

So where does that leave us? The industry is in turmoil, yes. But that’s normal. Every industry has boom and bust cycles. We’re just in the bust right now. It’ll recover. It’ll evolve. Some brands will disappear, and some new ones will rise. Our focus is to keep doing what we love — mountain bike retail, mountain bike components, and apparel — and doing it in a way that reflects our passion.

Hopefully, this gave you a real, un-sensationalized look at where the bike industry is at and where it might be going. If you’ve got questions, drop a comment. I’m happy to answer them — and maybe we’ll do a follow-up video or blog. Thanks for reading (or watching, if you came from YouTube). See you on the trails.